When will Canada and the U.S. announce a new trade deal, after Carney's talk with Trump?

Odds now: Later or never 29%, By Nov 30, 2026 20%, Jan–Mar 2027 20%. Closes June 30, 2027.

Chances

• By Nov 30, 2026 — 20%
• Dec 2026 — 18%
• Jan–Mar 2027 — 20%
• Apr–Jun 2027 — 13%
• Later or never — 29%

Rules

• This resolves on the first date that both the Canadian government (PMO or Global Affairs Canada) and the U.S. administration (White House or USTR) publicly say they have reached a trade agreement or agreement in principle covering tariffs on goods across multiple sectors.
• Resuming talks, one-sided tariff changes, a deal limited to a single sector, or a statement that a deal is close do not count. Dates are judged in Toronto time, as reported by the official statements and major outlets such as CBC or Reuters.
• Trading closes at the end of June 30, 2027. If no qualifying announcement has been made by then, "Later or never" wins.

Source: PMO / Global Affairs Canada and White House / USTR announcements

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