How many of the six Dec. 7 federal byelections, including Scarborough North, will the Liberals win?

Odds now: 3 36%, 2 33%, 4 16%. Closes December 7, 2026.

Chances

• 0–1 — 12%
• 2 — 33%
• 3 — 36%
• 4 — 16%
• 5 or more — 3%

Rules

• This counts the six federal byelections held on Dec. 7, 2026: Scarborough North, Brantford—Brant South, Yorkton—Melville, Laurier—Sainte-Marie, Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie and Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton. A riding counts for the Liberals if the Liberal candidate is leading in Elections Canada's published results at noon Toronto time on Dec. 8, 2026.
• Elections Canada's results decide. Independents and candidates from other parties do not count, even if they run with Liberal support.
• If a riding's byelection is postponed or cancelled, or the Liberals do not win it, it counts as not won by the Liberals.

Source: Elections Canada

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